Black Adam and October Box Office Preview | Techno Glob


After a $317 million September, theaters have a reason to be happy with Dwayne Johnson’s DC Comics superhero.

The good news about September’s box office is with a domestic total of $317 million, surpassing our projection ($300 million) for the first time in months. It’s a small comfort for the theater. That’s still a terrible result and the lowest-grossing month since April 2021, when theaters were just starting to recover.

At 46 percent of September 2019 (the last “normal” year, although ticket prices are now 20 percent higher), it also has the worst monthly comparative total of 2022. A 20 percent price increase, it shows actual attendance at 55 percent.) It was also the first month this year to fall below the same month in 2021.

But as we said, there is some good news. In a rare month without franchises or sequels, three original releases with female leads grossed $19 million or more each — “The Woman King” (Disney), “Don’t Worry Darling” (Warner Bros. Discovery), and “Smile” (Paramount) – Opened to #1. It’s encouraging news that will likely spur similar productions for theatrical release.

October starts the fourth quarter with an unusual shot that is better than July-September thanks to the Disney titles “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (November 11) and “Avatar: Waterway” in December 16. 2021. With recent months due to Covid-related delays, October’s total of $623 million bested November. It won’t happen this year.

In October 2021, “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” “No Time to Die,” “Halloween Kills” and “Dune” all open to $40 million or more, with “Venom” topping $90 million. . Not having the same potential this month, projections range anywhere from $400 million to $600 million. However, there is only one important variable: How will the DC comic title “Black Adam” (WBD) do?

It opens on October 21st, so only 11 days count in the month’s total. “Shazam!” The spin-off stars Dwayne Johnson and the most recent tracking suggests an opening weekend of $75 million, which would normally reach $150 million by October 31. As things stand, $500 million seems like a reasonable estimate for the October box office total.

Among new wide releases, Sony’s animated “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” opens Friday and “Halloween Ends” (Universal) opens Oct. 14. They are likely the next biggest contributor. “Lyle” is the first family release in a while, and although it’s based on the popular 1965 children’s book, it may not have a chance to reach #1. Projections are closer to $10 million to $20 million, but it would surprise some if it performs better than expected.

Recent “Halloween” entries (like last year’s, streaming from the beginning on Peacock), are expected to fall short of last year’s $49 million debut but should open to $35 million or more. Unlike “Lyle”, which can be maintained for several weeks, the horror film will likely be faster.

Three other major releases are expected to open at least once. David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam” (Disney), which opens this Friday, may not top $10 million this weekend with questionable long-term prospects. With a budget of $80 million it is his most expensive film, and with a 47 Metacritic score it is his worst review.

ticket to heaven

“Ticket to Heaven”

Universal Pictures

Oct. 21 also sees the George Clooney and Julia Roberts rom-com “Ticket to Paradise” (Universal) which has opened after taking in nearly $50 million overseas so far. It should open $10 million-$15 million; A similar range is expected for Lionsgate’s exorcism horror film, “Pray for the Dead,” which opens Oct. 28.

This month will also see the debut of several limited release titles, with a level of platform releases that we haven’t seen in nearly three years. Success will be critical to the long-term health of that struggling market sector, largely because this summer’s hits reinforced the strategy of major studio exits.

Among the holders, “Muskara” is showing strength with a reasonable chance of hitting at least one new opener this week. None of the holdovers made even $7 million last weekend, so the residual impact of older films on the month’s totals will be less than average.

As always, theaters are at the mercy of released films. Can “Black Adam” show improvement and set the tone for “Wakanda” and “Avatar.” We need to follow in their footsteps with “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Spiderman: No Way Home.”

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